The upcoming general election campaign for May perhaps 5th promises to become somewhat much more useful than the campaign in 2001.
There are undoubtedly additional controversial issues at stake, for instance the Iraq war and immigration. But much more much possibly Labour has now been in power for eight years and can't so simply blameany failings, on the public services or in other areas, on a las tConservative government. The frequent perception during the last campaign how the electorate were willing to give New Labour an additional four or 5 yearsto prove itself, specifically simply because the Conservatives were still quarrelling amongst themselves about Europe and also the crushing defeat in 97, has entirely dissipated. However, arguably for this really reason the 2005 British general election campaign also promises to become amongst the most bitterly fought and bad campaigns in British political history.
In here analysis I shall argue that the 2005 election campaign is living up to this promise. Thus far, it has been dominated by each party taking aim at eachother, instead of a contest between competing visions of the much better world. Firstly, I'll factor out some general factors why the major political partiesin Britain could possibly be more possibly to adopt bad campaign techniques than inprevious general elections. Then I will contemplate in far more detail the present campaigns on the Labour and Conservative parties and how they've presentedthe difficulties inside a predominately unfavorable rather than sure manner. I will concentrate on thecampaigns in the Labour and Conservative parties mainly because they've so far dominated the overall campaign as well as the interplay between the 2 parties best illustrates what I shall claim is its largely negative character.
British election campaigns: some structural tendencies and recent trends.
Governments of all descriptions tend being unpopular after a prolonged period in office, especially in Britain. This can be arguably due to the fact British governments tend to receive additional blame for many from the countries ills.In this respect governmental power in Britain can be a thing of a poisoned chalice. Whilst the British constitution offers governments using a majority inthe Residence of Commons a higher degree of power than in other democracies, this also ways that they consume a greater share of responsibility for ones countries failings. In 2001 Labour could absolve itself of a lot of the blame forcontinuing inadequacies in the public services, but following eight many years of Labour rule they cannot.On the a single hand then the Conservatives have far more scope for attacking Labour though Labour have a lot more have to attack the Conservatives. This can be not an unusual scenario in British politics however, that is certainly identified to become in particular adversarial. Partly for ones causes outlined above, partly since it has afirst past the article electoral program wherever the winner takes all, and partly because it is a predominately a couple of party system the conduct and variety of British politics tends to be adversarial in character and therefore arguably prone tonegative campaigning.In this respect it is similar although not as extreme as the united states presidential elections, which also employ a first past the post winner takes all electoral system.
But perhaps the single most crucial effect upon the conduct and sort of British generalelection campaigns over the past few decades has been the increased importance with the media. The political parties now must adapt their campaigns to theway exactly where political issues are treated by the mainstream media. This can be not just since much more voters than ever previous to have access to a higher range ofmedia, and that a lot more voters 'consume' this media. It is also since the mainpolitical parties cannot any additional rely on the big guaranteed pool of votersthat normally remain loyal to their parties, as was the situation during thepost-war consensus. Thus, if you will find more floating voters then electioncampaigns are a lot more likely to swing on difficulties at the time, which are chieflyinterpreted by voters in the mainstream media of television and masscirculation newspapers. But why does this mean that election campaigns shouldbe much more negative? Possibly this can be since television and mass circulationnewspapers are entertainment driven and are as a result more almost certainly to givegreater coverage to sensational, dramatic stories to be able to keep readerand viewing figures. In other words, a story for the own history of aMinister may well achieve more coverage than a new policy announcement.
The campaign strategies
Labour's maincampaign slogan was unveiled explicitly towards public during their springconference on 11th- 13th February 2005, particularlyduring Blair's speech. For though he didn't name the day he warned the partyfaithful that there could possibly be no complacency in their work 'go out and earnevery vote, each seat . . .'He told them that their message ought to be 'forwards not back'. In a key passageduring the speech Blair made clear what their overriding aim needs to be to trywin back lost support. He said: Since now they're thinking, reflecting - dowe go forward with Labour, or back on the Tories. Our employment is to persuade themto go forward. To vote for us not like a rejection of others but as anendorsement of what we are trying to complete to your country.'
The Labour campaign strategy then, surely because it ispresented for the public, could be the opposite in the Conservative strategy, whichaccording to Blair in this speech is to 'spread cynicism'. In other wordsLabour's procedure is to offer a vision of a way forward, to adopt a positive campaign.But is this very their main strategy? Does the Labour leadership reallybelieve how the best method to prevent voters from turning back to theConservative's is to offer them a certain vision in the way forward? Or is itmore fundamentally to build the electorate fear the return on the Conservativeparty? It's very tough to supply conclusive empirical evidence one way orthe other in answer to these questions, definitely at this stage in thecampaign. However, simply because there are many difficulties at this election that votersappear to feel strongly about, including immigration, crime, the NHS and Iraq isit extremely plausible that Labour could persuade people voters that there's aprogressive way forward with Labour? Are voters likely to shift from considering thatLabour is failing or hasn't delivered to considering that Labour actually has aprogressive programme to your future? Or are they much more probably to shift fromtheir disenchantment about Labour to considering how the Conservative's may beworse - how the Conservatives may either exacerbate failings or bring newones? Certainly the latter shift is a lot more likely.
Some recognitionof this looks to get been produced by the appointment of Zack Exley otherwiseknown in the United States as the 'garbage man', like a campaign advisor.Exley is notorious during the U.S for his use of adverse campaigning tactics,especially for his web site called 'move on' which famously showed fakephotographs of George Bush smoking a joint. Furthermore there has been somespeculation that the recent exposure in the Conservative party deputy ChairmanHoward Flight's personalized remark that the Tories proposed 35 billion pound cut inpublic spending compared to Labour was only a hint for the significantly larger cuts ifthey had been elected, was the result of Labour dirty tactics.It has been advised that is, how the exposure was the result of a Labourmole. It's of course not surprising that Labour have produced considerable play onthe exposure as well as the consequent sacking of Flight more than the Easter weekend.
However,the Conservative party can hardly been characterised as innocent in comparison.They have used a campaign strategist from Australia called Lynton Crosby.Like Exley, Crosby is well known in his homeland for damaging campaigningtechniques. 'Whether it is fears of asylum seekers, high taxation orunemployment, Mr Crosby . . . finely tunes his search to pinpoint the issuesthat can turn votes. Typically, media teams will work 24 hours a day analysingthe benefits of polling and voters will likely be addressed the same day with directmailshots over a problems ahead.' Therecan be small doubt that Crosby is behind the recent Conservative postercampaign, which cleverly displays different statements in handwritinghighlighting well-known dissatisfactions. The conservative party emblem is notvery prominent so that readers simply read the message and presumably triggeranti-government thoughts.
Overall it's said how the Conservative partycampaign lacks any guiding thread or vision except that it's anti-Labour. Ofcourse the issues are dealt with inside a manner akin to neo-Thatcherite ideologybut this is rarely spelled out as explicitly since it was during Thatcher'sleadership or even during the terms of Hague and Ian Duncan Smith. By contrastMichael Howard's campaign, as 1 journalist recently noted, is just 'savagelypopulist'.
Immigration
By contrastimmigration is definitely not an difficulty that the Labour party has been especiallystrong on. Though during the last election they had been effectively able toportray the Conservatives as extreme appropriate wing partly due to their policyon immigration, they are most likely stepping on damaging ground if they attemptto do the exact same in this election. Not merely has immigration been a hot issueduring the campaign so far, it has been an trouble articulated largely by thosewho consider there ought to stricter limits on immigration. Moreover, even thoughasylum applications have gone down in the past year Labour cannot as well loudlyproclaim this as an accomplishment because it could possibly be argued that most voters viewson immigration do not consume figures into account.Government immigration figures are either may well not be believed since theydisguise illegal immigration or could possibly be ignored because voter'sdissatisfaction on Labour's record on immigration is often based on everydayperception. There's possibly modest ground that Labour can win on this issueother than labelling the Tories as 'opportunists'.
Not so for theTories of course, for whom immigration already has been, and promises to be, aprofitable issue. There's tiny doubt that the Tories intend to produce much ofthe immigration issue. And there can be no greater evidence of this that on theMonday right after the weekend on the Flight affair the Tories announced a new policyproposal on immigration, namely to make a new border police to fight illegalimmigration.And their poster campaign highlights how bold they are willing to become aboutimmigration. It says, simply: Its not racist to impose limits onimmigration.' This statement is indeed backed up by concrete proposals tolimit immigration, for example the proposed withdrawal of Britain in the 1951Geneva Convention and holding asylum seekers outside the country. But can theseproposals really be employed as an instance of the sure campaign strategy? To aconsiderable extent this depends upon whether you agree in the Tories onimmigration. However, it is absolutely the case that the problem of immigration playson people's fears on the other and so is for that reason arguably negative. Indeed,it might be said that this strategy has been deployed inside Tories efforts tohighlight the dilemma of Gypsy settlement sites. They have proposed difficult newlegislation to impose firmer regulations on in which Gypsies can and cannotsettle.
Iraq
Equally as essential as immigration inside 2005 election campaign isand is possibly to be, Britain's role within the Iraq war. Significantly from the existingantipathy towards the Tony Blair and New Labour is centred on the Iraq war. And while Labour may perhaps notlose a lot ground on the Conservatives on this issue, as the Conservatives alsosupported the war, there is nevertheless a lot capital for your Tories in raising thequestion of weapons of mass destruction. For whilst Howard supported the war heis almost certainly opportunist sufficient and clever adequate to distinguish the war itselffrom Blair's presentation to the public of ungrounded evidence on weapons ofmass destruction. And while this tactic may not bring Tory help on its ownit will surely support to spread additional doubt about the trustworthiness ofBlair and New Labour. That is, it's going to assist to stimulate the sense that theLabour party is often a party of spin and deceit. Indeed, Howard has alreadytaken the opportunity to generate references to Labour's untrustworthiness asjustified by Blair's false presentation on the threat posed by Iraq. Infact he did so on a maybe unlikely, but high profile occasion of his replyto Gordon Brown's budget.
By contrast Blair's most effective hope on the dilemma of Iraq might be to makeit into a question of leadership and personality in between himself and Howard.Rather than focusing on the government's accomplishment in bringing an end to theregime of Saddam Hussein, Blair's effort to put his personal personality andleadership credentials like a key electoral strategy/issue is evidenced by hiswillingness to confront the electorate head on in televised question an answersessions.This has been a tried and trusted process of Blair's during the past two electioncampaigns but a single would certainly find it understandable had been he to avoid these kinds of astrategy this time round. But if Blair believes that his unique personality incontrast to Howard, are going to be his chief electoral asset then this would undoubtedly bethe final nail from the coffin on his individual declared strategy to seem forwards notback.
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